Performance and uncertainty analysis of a short-term climate reconstruction based on multi-source data in the Tianshan Mountains region,China

Short-term climate reconstruction, i.e., the reproduction of short-term(several decades) historical climatic time series based on the relationship between observed data and available longer-term reference data in a certain area, can extend the length of climatic time series and offset the shortage of observations. This can be used to assess regional climate change over a much longer time scale. Based on monthly grid climate data from a Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5(CMIP5) dataset for the period of 1850–2000, the Climatic Research Unit(CRU) dataset for the period of 1901–2000 and the observed data from 53 meteorological stations located in the Tianshan Mountains region(TMR) of China during the period of 1961–2011, we calibrated and validated monthly average temperature(MAT) and monthly accumulated precipitation(MAP) in the TMR using the delta, physical scaling(SP) and artificial neural network(ANN) methods. Performance and uncertainty during the calibration(1971–1999) and verification(1961–1970) periods were assessed and compared using traditional performance indices and a revised set pair analysis(RSPA) method. The calibration and verification processes were subjected to various sources of uncertainty due to the influence of different reconstructed variables, different data sources, and/or different methods used. According to traditional performance indices, both the CRU and CMIP5 datasets resulted in satisfactory calibrated and verified MAT time series at 53 meteorological stations and MAP time series at 20 meteorological stations using the delta and SP methods for the period of 1961–1999. However, the results differed from those obtained by the RSPA method. This showed that the CRU dataset produced a low degree of uncertainty(positive connection degree) during the calibration and verification of MAT using the delta and SP methods compared to the CMIP5 dataset. Overall, the calibrated and verified MAP had a high degree of uncertainty(negative connection degree) regardless of the dataset or reconstruction method used. Therefore, the reconstructed time series of MAT for the period of 1850(or 1901)–1960 based on the CRU and CMIP5 datasets using the delta and SP methods could be used for further study. The results of this study will be useful for short-term(several decades) regional climate reconstruction and longer-term(100 a or more) assessments of regional climate change.     

鹅肠道微生物研究进展

肠道微生物是当前研究的热点,鹅肠道微生物的组成与丰富程度不仅和鹅的生长性能密切相关,而且在鹅机体生理活动中具有一定的调节作用,同时与疾病的发生和发展具有密切的联系。通过研究鹅肠道微生物的调节,从而达到促生长或者治疗疾病的目的,是目前鹅研究探寻的新方向。文章主要综述了鹅肠道微生物的组成及其变化规律,以期为鹅产业生物饲料的开发应用、研发推广新型安全高效饲料添加剂提供新思路。     

茂兰自然保护区森林景观格局变化分析

本文以2011年和2017的森林调查成果化数据为基础,依据不同优势树种组,采用景观格局指数法,从组成结构、斑块特征、景观异质性和空间分布4方面分析2011年和2017年茂兰自然保护区的森林景观格局及其变化。结果表明：林地面积增加了654.08 hm²；森林优势树种数量从15种增加至30种；景观面积(CA)最大的均为阔叶混交树种组,增加了1286.33hm²；斑块平均大小(MpS)最大的均为阔叶混交树种组,增加了471.80 hm²；面积加权的平均形状指数(AWMSI)和面积加权的平均分形指数(AWMPFD)最大值均为阔叶混交树种组；景观斑块边缘密度(ED)最大值均为阔叶混交树种组；阔叶混交树种组的平均最小距离(ENN)减少。从2011年2017年研究区的主要优势树种组阔叶混交树种组得以保护,这与人为干扰的减少有关。     

外源铬对延胡索生理指标及抗氧化系统变化的影响

为探究不同浓度外源Cr6+处理下，延胡索（Corydalis yanhusuo）生理指标及抗氧化系统的变化情况，测定了延胡索植株内铬含量、株高、生物量以及抗氧化系统各项指标。结果表明：当土壤中Cr6+浓度在67.32~323.32 mg·kg-1范围内，随着土壤中Cr6+浓度的升高，延胡索体内Cr6+累积量增加。延胡索植株株高、生物量表现为先升后降趋势，当土壤中Cr6+浓度低于131.32 mg·kg-1时，延胡索生长受到促进，而且这种作用具有一定的浓度依赖性：当土壤中Cr6+浓度低于131.32 mg·kg-1时，超氧化物歧化酶（superoxide dismutase, SOD）有较高活性,将超氧阴离子自由基歧化分解为H2O2，此时过氧化物酶（peroxidase, POD）、过氧化氢酶（catalase, CAT）活性均呈上升趋势，将H2O2分解，延胡索植株的生长受到促进作用；当土壤中Cr6+浓度达到195.32 mg·kg-1后，延胡索受到的胁迫严重，SOD活性有较大幅度的下降，植株体内超氧阴离子自由基大量累积，延胡索植株生长受到抑制。     

基于主被动遥感技术的地表覆被类型变化检测方法——以新疆西天山国家级自然保护区为例

旨在研究主被动遥感结合的地表覆被变化监测方法，使用高分数据和哨兵1号数据分别代表被动和主动遥感，对新疆西天山国家级自然保护区地表覆被变化情况进行检测，进而对得出的林地、草地、建筑物检测结果进行联合分析，最终得到主被动遥感联合变化检测结果。通过实地精度检验对主被动遥感联合变化检测结果进行验证。结果表明，该方法的变化检测结果精度达到90%以上。说明结合主动遥感和被动遥感既能克服天气的影响，又能在检测中保留光谱和纹理等丰富的信息，变化检测的精度较高；主被动遥感联合变化检测可以较为快速、准确地掌握地表覆被类型的变化，能够在一定程度上减少被动遥感数据的云量困扰。并且该方法在林地和建筑物上有较高的敏感性，适合森林自然保护区的森林变化和建筑监测。     

Breaking the ice: the introduction of biofouling organisms to Antarctica on vessel hulls

1. Few reports exist that describe marine non‐native species in the Southern Ocean and near‐shore waters around the Antarctic continent. Nevertheless, Antarctica's isolated marine communities, which show high levels of endemism, may be vulnerable to invasion by anthropogenically introduced species from outside Antarctica via vessel hull biofouling.
2. Hull surveys of the British Antarctic Survey's RRS James Clark Ross were undertaken between 2007 and 2014 at Rothera Research Station on the Antarctic Peninsula (Lat. 67°34'S; Long. 68°07'W) to investigate levels of biofouling. In each case, following transit through scouring sea‐ice, over 99% of the vessel hull was free of macroscopic fouling communities. However, in some surveys microbial/algal biofilms, balanomorph barnacles and live individuals of the cosmopolitan pelagic barnacle, Conchoderma auritum were found in the vicinity of intake ports, demonstrating the potential for non‐native species to be transported to Antarctica on vessel hulls.
3. Increasing ship traffic volumes and declining duration of sea ice in waters to the north and west of the Antarctic Peninsula mean the region may be at increased risk of non‐native species introductions. Locations at particular risk may include the waters around popular visitor sites, such as Goudier Island, Neko Harbour, Whalers Bay, Cuverville Island and Half Moon Island, and around northern peninsula research stations.
4. Simple and cost‐effective mitigation measures, such as intentionally moving transiting ships briefly through available offshore sea ice to scour off accessible biofouling communities, may substantially reduce hull‐borne propagule pressure to the region. Better quantification of the risk of marine non‐native species introductions posed by vessel hulls to both Arctic and Antarctic environments, as sea ice patterns and shipping traffic volumes change, will inform the development of appropriate regional and international management responses.

Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Influence of climate and abundance on migration timing of adult Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) among rivers in Newfoundland and Labrador

Evidence mounts for the influence of climate variability on temporal trends in the phenology of many organisms including various species of fish. Accordingly, we examined variation in adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar run timing in thirteen Newfoundland and Labrador rivers where returns were monitored at fishways or fish‐counting fences. Run timing varied significantly among rivers with the median date of return differing by up to 5 weeks. Duration of runs was generally short with most adults returning over a period of three to 5 weeks. A mixed model analysis incorporating a first‐order autoregressive error structure was used to generalise changes in run timing among all monitored rivers. Results indicated that the median date of return has advanced by almost 12 days over a 35‐year interval from 1978 to 2012, while several individual rivers have advanced by almost 21 days. The influence of climate on median timing was evident when the simultaneous effects of both climate and salmon abundance were controlled. We found earlier runs associated with overall warmer climate conditions on the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelf. Results contrast with those from the north‐east Atlantic where Atlantic salmon are returning later in some rivers coincident with warming climate conditions.     

不同贮藏条件下成熟椰子水品质变化规律研究

以成熟椰子水为试验材料，以吸光度、pH、白利糖度和电导率为指标，结合感官评价对 4 个贮藏温度下的椰子水品质变化特点进行分析。结果表明，各处理随贮藏时间延长，吸光值均逐渐增大，pH 值均逐渐减小，电导率呈增大趋势；温度越低，吸光值增大越缓慢和 pH 维持稳定的时间段越长，说明低温更有利于椰子水的贮藏；相同贮藏温度，密封和非密封保存时间无差别，37℃ 可保存 5 h，24℃ 可保存 8 h，14℃ 可保存 22 h，4℃ 可保存 7 d。椰子水的吸光值和 pH 值剧变时间点与椰子水变质时间节点最接近，其中吸光值变化最为显著，吸光值和 pH 变化可作为反映椰子水变质的主要指标；椰子水收集后迅速降至 4℃ 可满足工业生产要求。     

Effect of environmental conditions on the seasonal and inter‐annual variability of small pelagic fish abundance off North‐West Africa: The case of both Senegalese sardinella

The objective of this study was to assess the effect of environmental variations on the abundance of Sardinella aurita and Sardinella maderensis in Senegalese waters in the upwelling system. Monthly data indicating the abundance of sardinella were first estimated from commercial statistics, using Generalized Linear Model from 1966 to 2011. Abundance indices (AIs) were then compared with environmental indices, at the local scale, a Coastal Upwelling Index (CUI) and a coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST) index, and on a large scale, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), using correlations and times series analyses. The results showed that the abundance of sardinella is determined by a strong seasonal pattern and inter‐annual fluctuations. The abundance of S. aurita peaked in spring and in autumn, whereas that of S. maderensis peaked in the warm season (July–September). The trend of the sardinella abundance was significantly correlated with the CUI, especially in autumn and spring. Interannual fluctuations of S. maderensis and S. aurita abundance are, respectively, driven by the precocity and the duration of the upwelling season that is attributed to distinct migration patterns. Both sardinella species also respond with a delay of around 4 years to the winter NAO index and the autumn CUI, and the AMO index, respectively, both related to migration patterns. The wide variations in sardinella biomass are caused by variations in environmental conditions, which should be considered in the implementation of an ecosystem‐based approach in sardinella stocks management.     

Effect of climate change on Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut: A life table approach

Investigations were conducted to understand the direct effects of rising temperature and the host-mediated effects of elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) on Spodoptera litura (Fabricius) (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera). This study involved i. the construction of life tables of S. litura at six constant temperatures viz., 20, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35°C ± 0.5 °C reared on peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) grown under eCO₂ (550 ppm) concentration in open top chambers ii. Estimation of threshold temperatures and thermal constants and iii. Prediction of the pest scenarios during near and distant future climate change periods. Significantly lower leaf nitrogen, higher carbon and a higher relative proportion of carbon to nitrogen (C:N) were observed in peanut foliage grown under eCO₂ over ambient CO₂ (aCO₂). The mean development time (days) of each stage, egg, larva, pupa, pre-oviposition and total life span decreased from 20 to 35 °C temperature on eCO₂ foliage. The thermal requirement of S. litura from egg to egg (within the range of 20 °C–35 °C) was 538.5 DD on eCO₂ as against 494.5 DD on aCO₂ foliage. Finite (λ) and intrinsic rates of increase (r_m), net reproductive rate (R_o), mean generation time (T) and doubling time (DT) of S. litura varied significantly with temperature and CO₂ and were found to have quadratic relationships with temperature. The present results on life table parameters estimated by the bootstrap technique showed that the ‘r_m’ values of S. litura on eCO₂ foliage were higher than those in the literature indicating a significant influence of eCO₂. The reduction of ‘T’ was noticed from a maximum of 50 days at 20 °C to minimum of 22 days at 35 °C and ‘λ’ which is the indicator of reproductive value of new eggs was highest at 35 °C and showed a negative relationship with temperature. The data on these life table parameters were plotted against temperature and two non-linear models developed for both CO₂ conditions and used for predicting the pest scenarios. Prediction of pest scenarios based on PRECIS A1B emission scenario data at eleven peanut growing locations of the country during near future (NF) and distant future (DF) climate change periods showed an increase of ‘r_m’ and ‘λ’ with varied ‘R_o’ and reduced ‘T’. The present results indicate that temperature and CO₂ are vital in influencing the growth and life table parameters of S. litura and that pest incidence is likely to be higher in the future.